Hetzer
600 HP
76mm penetration at max range: 75%
76mm damage: 400-600 (500 on average)
76mm chance to hit at max range: 63%
Hetzer penetration vs M4A3 at max range from camo: 78% (100% chance to hit)
Hetzer damage vs M4A3 from camo: 500-750 (625 on average; Sherman has 700HP)
JPIV L48
650 HP
76mm penetration at max range: 75%
76mm damage: 400-600 (500 on average)
76mm chance to hit at max range: 56%
JPIV penetration vs M4A3 at max range from camo: 78% (100% chance to hit)
JPIV damage vs M4A3 from camo: 500-750 (625 on average; Sherman has 700HP)
JPIV L70
Chance to penetrate Sherman
650HP
76mm penetration at max range: 50%
76mm damage: 400-600 (500 on average)
76mm chance to hit at max range: 56%
JPIV penetration vs M4A3 at max range from camo: 100+% (100% chance to hit)
JPIV damage vs M4A3 from camo: 625-812 (718 on average; Sherman has 700HP)
When a Hetzer or JPIV L48 goes against a 76mm Sherman, on average both need to penetrate the other twice to destroy it. Hetzer and JPIV have camouflage and should use it to their advantage, as such they have the benefit of the first shot and at the same time they have better chance to hit the Sherman and penetrate it. Even if the Sherman survives the shot and fires at the Hetzer/JPIV, it first needs to hit, which is (almost) 50:50 chance. If it hits (and this is a big "IF") it can penetrate but still will in most cases need to hit twice. The Hetzer/JPIV will sure shoot its second shot before the Sherman can shoot its second shot so the Axis TDs have advantage.
In case of the L70 version, the chances are quite good it will one-shot Sherman and even if not, it still needs to go through the same process as above - Sherman needs to hit it twice with almost 50% chance to miss, but in this case it also has 50% chance to bounce off even if it hits.
It just feels like people saw the numbers and their reaction was pretty much:
And started to come up with theories how the Hetzers/JPIVs will be utterly useless without actually trying it out in the game.
The numbers don't look bad at all if you ask me but I can be wrong. If so, I would rather have a proof than a theoretical talks. Can you post here some replays where Hetzers/JPIVs (when used as intended, not staged cases where you drive your Hetzer ass-first against enemy tanks
) keep consistently failing against Shermans?